Is Quantum a Threat to Bitcoin?

Yes, quantum computers are a threat to Bitcoin.

So, how imminent is this threat, and is Bitcoin ready for this inevitable situation?

1- The Maze Analogy

Let’s use an analogy to understand why quantum computers are so powerful.

Imagine you are standing in front of a giant maze with millions of locked doors. Only one door is correct, and the prize is behind it.

• Classical Approach: A classical computer is like a person trying each door one by one. Even the world’s fastest supercomputer is just someone running very fast in this maze. In other words, it has to try every door in sequence.
• Quantum Approach: A quantum computer, on the other hand, emits a “wave of probability” that permeates the entire maze at once. It’s as if it shouts into the maze, allowing the sound waves to spread through every corridor simultaneously. Thanks to superposition, it tests all keys on all doors at the same time.

This poses a serious threat to the encryption algorithms that form the foundation of Bitcoin and the traditional financial system.

So, where are we at now?

2- The Quantum Race

The power of quantum computers is measured in qubits.

However, the focus here is on logical qubits, not the error-prone physical ones. On average, it takes 100–1000 physical qubits to create 1 logical qubit.

As of today, the state of the industry is as follows:

• IBM: Is in the lead with its “Condor” processor, which has 1,121 physical qubits. They have a roadmap aiming to reach 200 logical qubits by 2029.
• Google: Is making significant strides in error correction with its “Willow” chip (105 physical qubits).
• Microsoft and Quantinuum: Are in the race by focusing on a different technology called “topological qubits” and highlighting quality metrics like “Quantum Volume.”

As you can see, the threat of quantum computers is no longer theoretical. But we are at the beginning of the road.

So, what is the threat awaiting Bitcoin?

3- Two Risks Facing Bitcoin and Proposed Solutions

The quantum threat hits Bitcoin at two main points:

1. Wallet Security (Shor’s Algorithm): This is the most critical threat. It can break the encryption protecting your Bitcoin address (public key) to reveal your private key.
2. Mining (Grover’s Algorithm): Although a lower risk, it can weaken the algorithms used in mining, thereby compromising the network’s security.

The most important point is this: the Bitcoin community is taking this threat seriously.

As a solution, a “soft-fork” is being worked on that will introduce new quantum-resistant address types, such as P2QRH (BIP-360). This transition will allow users to voluntarily switch to new, more secure addresses.

Conclusion: A Storm is Coming, But We Have Time

The quantum threat is a security issue that concerns not only Bitcoin but the entire digital infrastructure, including banking and military systems.

In the short term (2–3 years), there is no immediate threat to Bitcoin. However, in the medium and long term, this storm is definitely coming. It is a positive development that Bitcoin developers are taking this issue seriously and have already started discussing solutions.

But as I said, it’s not just Bitcoin; many government institutions and NGOs have already begun preparing for this threat.

Thank you for reading 🙏